The projected COVID slide

A brief from NWEA attempts to project what the levels of learning loss students may experience as a result of the COVID-19 school shutdowns. The researchers looked at a national sample of 5 million students in grades 3-8 and projected where their academic achievement is likely to be in the fall under two possible trajectories.

The first scenario compared the COVID to a summer slide in which students lose two to three months of learning. If the COVID slide follows this pattern, students are likely to re-enter school in the fall having achieved approximately 70% of the learning growth in reading that would normally be expected in a normal school year. In math, the situation is more serious, with students having less than 50% of the typical learning gains in the fall relative to the previous school year.

In a second scenario, termed the summer slowdown, the decline is less steep. However, neither model accounted for the stress, trauma, and lack of resources that some students will experience during the pandemic.